Despite the recent rebound of the Naira and ongoing reforms by the administration of President Bola Tinubu, many Nigerians may not experience immediate improvements in living conditions, according to Hon. Dele Kelvin Oye, immediate past Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPS) and President of Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA).

The Naira has strengthened in recent weeks, trading around N1,340/$ on the parallel market as of February 20, 2026, compared to previous lows beyond N1,600. Vice-President Kashim Shettima recently suggested the currency could have appreciated further to N1,000 per dollar under different intervention conditions.

However, Oye, who is also Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), argued in a position paper sent to Sunday Vanguard that currency appreciation alone does not automatically translate into lower prices, more jobs, or reduced poverty.

“The naira’s rebound reflects real reform, a credible CBN, and Nigerian entrepreneurial grit,” Oye stated. “But fiscal dominance, huge deficits, debt service, and inefficient spending remain counterweights. Without fiscal prudence, private-sector facilitation, and inclusive spending, appreciation will stay a market statistic, not a lived improvement for most Nigerians.”

Inflation fight

Oye described Nigeria’s current situation as a tension between fiscal and monetary authorities, warning that excessive government borrowing could undermine efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to control inflation.

He referenced the 2026 budget—estimated at about N58 trillion with a deficit of N23.85 trillion (4.28% of GDP)—noting that debt servicing consumes a significant portion of government revenue.

According to him, while Federation revenue rose from N16.8 trillion in 2023 to N31.9 trillion in 2024, deficits and borrowing remain high, with some sub-national spending directed toward non-productive projects rather than income-generating investments.

Citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Oye noted that headline inflation eased slightly to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December, but food inflation continues to squeeze households.

“Fiscal dominance risks undermining the CBN’s credibility if unchecked,” he warned.

He also criticised what he described as an aggressive tax-collection posture, arguing instead for trade facilitation, streamlined regulatory processes, and reduction of multiple taxes in line with reforms proposed by the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee.

Dangote’s prediction

Oye pointed to projections by Aliko Dangote that the Naira could appreciate to N1,100/$, linking such optimism to the operations of the Dangote Refinery.

According to him, the refinery’s 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity and production of aviation fuel (Jet A1), naphtha, polypropylene, bitumen, LPG, sulphur, and bunker fuel are already reducing fuel imports and conserving foreign exchange.

He added that expansion plans—including increased polypropylene production and additional petrochemical outputs—could further reduce import dependence, create jobs, and stimulate industrial growth across sectors such as aviation, plastics, fertiliser, and road construction.

Immediate action

For immediate government action, Oye advocated fiscal discipline, spending efficiency, and targeted social interventions.

He urged the Federal Government to curb borrowing, cap local public debt, and channel improved FAAC allocations toward debt repayment to lower interest rates and boost private-sector access to affordable capital.

He also called for linking sub-national allocations and internally generated revenue to productive investments, shifting spending from consumption to infrastructure such as power, feeder roads, and storage facilities.

Additionally, Oye recommended expanding targeted cash transfers and investing in early childhood health, education, and vocational training.

He cited an October 2025 update by the World Bank, which reportedly placed 139 million Nigerians in poverty, up from 87 million in 2023, warning that without mass employment programmes and safety nets, reform sustainability and political stability could be threatened.

Other factors

Oye further highlighted other dynamics influencing the Naira’s appreciation, including cryptocurrency trends, regional trade considerations, and export competitiveness.

He noted an inverse relationship between Naira weakness and Bitcoin demand, suggesting that recent currency stability may have eased pressure on foreign exchange demand.

He also referenced discussions around invoicing petrol sales in Naira within ECOWAS, which could strengthen regional demand for the currency.

However, he cautioned that sudden appreciation could hurt non-oil exports, citing reports from cocoa farmers about price mismatches affecting rural incomes.

On inclusivity, Oye stressed that infrastructure investments must extend beyond major urban centres to rural communities to ensure broader circulation of economic gains.

“Growth must circulate, not pool,” he concluded.